Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?

36 Pages Posted: 6 Sep 2002  

Wayne E. Ferson

University of Southern California; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Sergei Sarkissian

McGill University; Yerevan State University

Timothy T. Simin

Pennsylvania State University

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: September 2002

Abstract

Even though stock returns are not highly autocorrelated, there is a spurious regression bias in predictive regressions for stock returns related to the classic studies of Yule (1926) and Granger and Newbold (1974). Data mining for predictor variables interacts with spurious regression bias. The two effects reinforce each other, because more highly persistent series are more likely to be found significant in the search for predictor variables. Our simulations suggest that many of the regressions in the literature, based on individual predictor variables, may be spurious

Suggested Citation

Ferson, Wayne E. and Sarkissian, Sergei and Simin, Timothy T., Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics? (September 2002). NBER Working Paper No. w9143. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=328695

Wayne E. Ferson (Contact Author)

University of Southern California ( email )

Los Angeles, CA 90089
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www-rcf.usc.edu/~ferson/

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Sergei Sarkissian

McGill University ( email )

1001 Sherbrooke St. W
Montreal, Quebec H3A 1G5
Canada
514-398-4876 (Phone)
514-398-3876 (Fax)

Yerevan State University

1 Alex Manoogian Street
Yerevan, 0025
Armenia

Timothy T. Simin

Pennsylvania State University ( email )

University Park, PA 16802
United States
814-865-3457 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://timsimin.net

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