Premium for Heightened Uncertainty: Explaining Pre-Announcement Market Returns

65 Pages Posted: 2 Dec 2018 Last revised: 29 Jul 2021

See all articles by Grace Xing Hu

Grace Xing Hu

PBC School of Finance, Tsinghua University

Jun Pan

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance (SAIF); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); China Academy of Financial Research (CAFR)

Jiang Wang

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management; China Academy of Financial Research (CAFR); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Haoxiang Zhu

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: July 28, 2021

Abstract

We find large overnight returns with no abnormal variance before nonfarm payrolls, ISM, and GDP announcements, similar to the pre-FOMC returns. To explain this common pattern, we propose a two-risk model with the uncertainty about the magnitude of the impending news' market impact as an additional risk, and link the pre-announcement return directly to the accumulation of heightened uncertainty and its later resolution prior to the announcement. We empirically test and verify the model's distinct predictions on the joint intertemporal behavior of return, variance, and particularly VIX -- a gauge of impact uncertainty by our model, surrounding macroeconomic announcements.

Keywords: Pre-Announcement Drift, Macroeconomic Announcements, FOMC, Heightened Uncertainty, VIX

JEL Classification: G12, G14

Suggested Citation

Hu, Grace Xing and Pan, Jun and Wang, Jiang and Zhu, Haoxiang, Premium for Heightened Uncertainty: Explaining Pre-Announcement Market Returns (July 28, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3290649 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3290649

Grace Xing Hu (Contact Author)

PBC School of Finance, Tsinghua University ( email )

43 Chengfu Road
Haidian District
Beijing, Beijing 100083
China

Jun Pan

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance (SAIF) ( email )

Shanghai Jiao Tong University
211 West Huaihai Road
Shanghai, 200030
China

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

China Academy of Financial Research (CAFR)

1954 Huashan Road
Shanghai P.R.China, 200030
China

Jiang Wang

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management ( email )

E62-614
100 Main Street
Cambridge, MA 02142
United States
617-253-2632 (Phone)
617-258-6855 (Fax)

China Academy of Financial Research (CAFR)

1954 Huashan Road
Shanghai P.R.China, 200030
China

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Haoxiang Zhu

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management ( email )

100 Main Street E62-623
Cambridge, MA 02142
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.mit.edu/~zhuh

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

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Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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