On the Measurement of Growth Over the Long Run

Abstract

Methodologies for the construction of nominal and real gross domestic product (GDP) time series often differ across time and countries. This paper discusses the main issues raised by this methodological heterogeneity on long-run measures of economic growth and, informed by those issues, provides a set of internationally comparable GDP estimates from 1820 to 2020. The estimates are based on real product benchmarks relative to the UK as a reference economy. The reference economy's GDP time series is a normalized composite of several indices. These estimates suggest that the Maddison and Maddison Project datasets overestimate economic growth after 1950 relative to the period from 1820 to 1950.

Keywords: historical national accounts, growth, measurement

JEL Classification: C43, C82, E01, O47, O57