The Role of Weather on Schooling and Work of Young Adults in Madagascar

65 Pages Posted: 1 Dec 2018

See all articles by Francesca Marchetta

Francesca Marchetta

Université d'Auvergne - Clermont 1 - Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Developpement International (CERDI)

David E. Sahn

Cornell University

Luca Tiberti

Université Laval

Date Written: November 30, 2018

Abstract

We examine the impact of rainfall variability and cyclones on schooling and work among a cohort of teens and young adults in Madagascar. We estimate a bivariate probit model using a panel survey conducted in 2004 and 2011 in this poor island nation, which is frequently affected by extreme weather events. Our results show that negative rainfall deviations and cyclones reduce the probability of attending school and encourage young men and, to a greater extent, women to enter the work force, and they reduce their French and math test scores. Less wealthy households are most likely to experience this school- to-work transition in the face of rainfall shocks. The finding is consistent with poorer households having less savings and more limited access to credit and insurance, which reduces their ability to cope with rainfall shortages. We also find that there are both contemporaneous and lagged effects of the weather shocks, and that they are of a similar magnitude. Our findings are robust to the use of a linear probability model, as well as a wide range of definitions of rainfall variations.

Keywords: climate shocks, employment, schooling, Africa

JEL Classification: Q54, J43, I25

Suggested Citation

Marchetta, Francesca and Sahn, David E. and Tiberti, Luca, The Role of Weather on Schooling and Work of Young Adults in Madagascar (November 30, 2018). Partnership for Economic Policy Working Paper No. 2018-08. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3293872 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3293872

Francesca Marchetta (Contact Author)

Université d'Auvergne - Clermont 1 - Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Developpement International (CERDI) ( email )

65 Boulevard Francois Mitterrand
63000 Clermont-Ferrand Cedex 1
France

David E. Sahn

Cornell University ( email )

B16 MVR Hall
Ithaca, NY 14853
United States
607-255-8931 (Phone)
607-255-0178 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://courses.cit.cornell.edu/des16

Luca Tiberti

Université Laval ( email )

2214 Pavillon J-A. DeSeve
Quebec, Quebec G1K 7P4
Canada

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