Women, Wealth Effects, and Slow Recoveries

83 Pages Posted: 3 Dec 2018 Last revised: 10 Sep 2021

See all articles by Masao Fukui

Masao Fukui

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

Emi Nakamura

Columbia Business School - Finance and Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Jón Steinsson

Columbia University

Date Written: November 2018

Abstract

Business cycle recoveries have slowed in recent decades. This slowdown comes entirely from female employment: as women’s employment rates converged towards men’s over the course of the past half-century, the growth rate of female employment slowed. But does the slowdown in the growth of female employment rates translate into a slowdown for overall employment rates? The degree to which women “crowd out” men in the labor market is a sufficient statistic for this question. We estimate the extent of crowding out across states, and find that it is small. We then develop a general equilibrium model of the female convergence process featuring home production and show that our cross-sectional crowding out estimate provides a powerful diagnostic statistic for aggregate crowding out. Our model implies that 60-75% of the slowdown in recent business cycle recoveries can be explained by female con-vergence.

Suggested Citation

Fukui, Masao and Nakamura, Emi and Steinsson, Jón, Women, Wealth Effects, and Slow Recoveries (November 2018). NBER Working Paper No. w25311, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3294879

Masao Fukui (Contact Author)

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) ( email )

Cambridge, MA
United States

Emi Nakamura

Columbia Business School - Finance and Economics ( email )

3022 Broadway
New York, NY 10027
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Jón Steinsson

Columbia University ( email )

3022 Broadway
New York, NY 10027
United States

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