Predictability of Order Imbalance, Market Quality and Equity Cost of Capital

71 Pages Posted: 20 Dec 2018 Last revised: 31 Mar 2019

See all articles by Daniele Bianchi

Daniele Bianchi

University of Warwick - Finance Group

Matthias Büchner

University of Warwick - Finance Group

Roman Kozhan

University of Warwick - Warwick Business School

Date Written: March 15, 2019

Abstract

We study the effect of the predictability of order imbalance on market quality. We measure the degree of predictability by using the predictive likelihood from a dynamic linear model where the dependent variable is the day-ahead order imbalance. Empirically, we show that increasing order imbalance predictability corresponds to significantly higher market liquidity and efficiency. This positive relationship is economically significant: a long-short portfolio based on past predictability generates significant risk-adjusted returns. Predictability of order imbalance measures a cost of asymmetric information that is not captured by traditional measures of adverse selection. The risk factor that is associated with asymmetric information is priced in the cross-section of stock returns, controlling for a variety of conventional sources of systematic risk. These results suggest the existence of a tight link between market microstructure features affecting order imbalance predictability and both market quality and the cost of capital of firms.

Keywords: Order Imbalance Predictability, Market Efficiency, Liquidity Provision, Asymmetric Information

JEL Classification: G10, G11, G14, G17

Suggested Citation

Bianchi, Daniele and Büchner, Matthias and Kozhan, Roman, Predictability of Order Imbalance, Market Quality and Equity Cost of Capital (March 15, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3297233 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3297233

Daniele Bianchi (Contact Author)

University of Warwick - Finance Group ( email )

Gibbet Hill Rd
Coventry, CV4 7AL
Great Britain

HOME PAGE: http://whitesphd.com/

Matthias Büchner

University of Warwick - Finance Group ( email )

Gibbet Hill Rd
Coventry, CV4 7AL
Great Britain

Roman Kozhan

University of Warwick - Warwick Business School ( email )

Coventry CV4 7AL
United Kingdom

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