Equilibrium Yield Curve, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy
43 Pages Posted: 10 Dec 2018
Date Written: November 2018
Upward sloping yield curves are hard to reconcile with the positive association between income and inflation (the Phillips curve) in consumption-based asset pricing models. Using US and UK data, this paper shows inflation is negatively correlated with long-run income growth but positively correlated with cyclical income, thus enabling the model to replicate positive and sizable term premiums, along with the Phillips curve over business cycles. Quantitative analyses also emphasize the importance of monetary policy, predicting that a permanently low growth and low inflation environment would precipitate flatter yield curvesdue to constraints to monetary policy around the zero lower bound.
Keywords: Term premiums, Phillips curve, Low-for-long, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Asset Pricing
JEL Classification: E43, E52, G12
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation