Can We Beat the Random Walk? The Case of Survey-Based Exchange Rate Forecasts in Chile

Abstract

We examine the accuracy of survey-based expectations of the Chilean exchange rate relative to the US dollar. Our out-of-sample analysis reveals that survey-based forecasts outperform the Driftless Random Walk (DRW) in terms of Mean Squared Prediction Error at several forecasting horizons. This result holds true even when comparing the survey to a more competitive benchmark based on a refined information set. A similar result is found when precision is measured in terms of Directional Accuracy: survey-based forecasts outperform a “pure luck” benchmark at several forecasting horizons. Differing from the traditional “no predictability” result reported in the literature for many exchange rates, our findings suggest that the Chilean peso is indeed predictable.

Keywords: Survey Expectations, Exchange Rates, Forecasting, Random Walk, Directional Accuracy, Mean Squared Prediction Error

JEL Classification: C01, C32, C52, C53, C58, G17, G11, E270, E370, F370, L740, O180, R310