통일 후 남북한 산업구조 재편 및 북한 성장산업 육성방안 (Ways to Reform Industrial Structure of North and South Korea and Nurture Growth Industries in North Korea after Unification)

189 Pages Posted: 14 Dec 2018

See all articles by Soonjick Hong

Soonjick Hong

The Korean Association of North Korean Studies

SeogKi Lee

Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade

Bong Hyun Cho

North Korea Research Soceity

Younseek Lee

Samsung Economic Research Institute

Il-young Jeong

Sungkyunkwan University

Date Written: December 12, 2018

Abstract

Korean Abstract: 본 연구는 남북한 경제통합과 통일이 남북한 산업구조 재편과 북한의 산업 발전과 함께 이루어져야 한다는 문제의식하에, 통일 이후 경쟁력 있는 한반도 산업지도를 그리고, 북한지역의 산업 재건과 성장 방안을 도출하는 데 목적이 있다.

남북한 경제통합과 통일 이후 경제적 효과를 극대화하기 위해서는 이질적인 남북한 산업구조를 재편하고 시너지 효과를 창출할 수 있는 구조로 조정할 필요가 있다. 즉 경제력 격차와 제도의 성격이 차별화된 남북한 산업을 합리적으로 구조 조정하여 통일 산업구조를 만들어내고 북한지역에 성장 가능한 산업을 육성해나가야 한다.

이 연구는 남북한 산업의 특성과 변화 등을 고려하여 합리적인 통일 산업구조 재편방안을 도출하고 구체적인 추진계획을 수립하고자 한다. 특히 북한 산업의 실태와 산업정책, 산업구조, 남북한 산업 경쟁력 및 전후방 연관관계 등을 분석하여 통일 이후 한반도 산업구조와 유망산업의 육성방안을 마련하는 것이 본 연구의 주된 목적이다.

English Abstract: With an understanding that economic integration and reunification of North and South Korea should be accompanied by structural reforms of the two Koreas’ industries and industrial development of North Korea, this paper aims at drawing a competitive industrial map of the Korean Peninsula and exploring ways to restore North Korean industries and grow its economy.

In order to maximize economic integration and economic benefits from unification, reforming disparate industrial structures of North and South Korea is necessary to create a synergy effect. In other words, as their economic power and institutions are different from each other, the two Koreas have to make industrial reforms in a reasonable way to create a favorable environment for unification and develop industries with growth potential in North Korea.

North Korean industries are expected to face changes from three perspectives. Firstly, with economic sanctions from the international community rising, the North will continue to change its industrial policy depending on 'external factors'. Secondly, North Korea's industrial policy in the future will focus on normalization of leading industries and improvement of internal efficiency. Thirdly, with investments from other countries and Sino-North Korean economic cooperation limited, the North will face a dilemma between its planned economic system and a market-oriented economy.

To restore North Korean economy and achieve its sustainable development, the following measures are required.

a. Finding and nurturing industries that will lead economic growth
b. Coming up with methods to attract investment to expand production and supply capacity
c. Enhancing growth potential by expanding SOC facilities
d. Fostering labor intensive industries to strengthen social safety net that lead to both economic growth and enhanced welfare
e. Developing export and basic industries based on establishment of a special zone or an industrial complex of local specialization

Directions for inter-Korean industrial cooperation and industrial reform in preparation for unification will have to focus on early economic recovery and industrial normalization of North Korea, while focus on strengthening competitiveness of South Korean industry through building a structure of division of labor that can make a win-win situation.

From a mid and long-term perspective, these should be pursued with consideration of balanced land development of the Korean Peninsula, enhancing regional cooperation, formation of an economic community and economic integration of North and South Korea. They also have to consider association with establishment of a Northeast Asian economic bloc.

To this end, the North will have to implement comprehensive and vigorous reforms and make large-scale investments on most industries. It will also have to foster new industries through privatization of state- owned properties, while attract foreign direct investments to nurture new industries, and establish a division of labor system in relation to South Korea’s key industries.

Note: Downloadable document is in Korean.

Keywords: North and South Korea, Industrial structure, unification

Suggested Citation

Hong, Soonjick and Lee, SeogKi and Cho, Bong Hyun and Lee, Younseek and Jeong, Il-young, 통일 후 남북한 산업구조 재편 및 북한 성장산업 육성방안 (Ways to Reform Industrial Structure of North and South Korea and Nurture Growth Industries in North Korea after Unification) (December 12, 2018). KIEP Research Paper. Long-term Trade Strategies Study Series 17-02. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3299849 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3299849

Soonjick Hong (Contact Author)

The Korean Association of North Korean Studies ( email )

1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu
bd 152-1, rm 614, Seoul National University
Seoul, Seoul 08826
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

SeogKi Lee

Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade ( email )

P.O. Box 205
Cheongryang, Seoul
United States

Bong Hyun Cho

North Korea Research Soceity ( email )

Korea, Democratic People's Republic (North Korea)

Younseek Lee

Samsung Economic Research Institute ( email )

28~31th Fl., Samsung Life Seocho Tower
1321-15, Seocho 2-dong, Seochoro 402, Seocho-gu
Seoul, 137-072
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Il-young Jeong

Sungkyunkwan University ( email )

53 Myeongnyun-dong 3-ga Jongno-ju
Guro-gu
Seoul, 110-745
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

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