통일 후 남북한 금융ㆍ재정 통합방안 (Financial and Fiscal Integration Plan between South and North Korea after Unification)

136 Pages Posted: 14 Dec 2018

See all articles by Sangche Lee

Sangche Lee

Korea Institute of Finance

Haesik Park

Korea Institute of Finance

Date Written: December 27, 2017

Abstract

Korean Abstract: 본 연구에서는 남북한 통일 이후 금융 및 재정통합 방안에 대해 논의하고자 한다. 이를 위해 통일 이후 한시적 분리운영 기간 최종단계에서의 북한지역의 모습을전제로 금융 및 재정정책 과제와 대응방향을 논의하였다. 통합 이후 남북한 경제에 영향을 주는 충격은 남북한 경제의 이질성이 클수록 비대칭적으로 발생하여 정책 대응을 일률적으로 하는 것이 어렵기 때문에 통합에 따른 비용이 커진다. 통합에 따라 단일통화를 사용할 경우 남북한의 경제 실정에 맞춘 통화정책의 자율성도 포기하게 되어 경제 불안정성에 따른 손실이 발생한다. 반면 남북한 경제의 유사성이 커질수록 경제통합 및 단일통화 사용에 따른 이득도 커진다. 따라서 최적통화지역 (OCA) 이론에 따를 경우 남북한 경제가 수렴한 정도가 통합에 따른 이득과 손실이 일치하는 임계수준보다 클 때가 남북한의 한시적 분리운영을 종료하는 시점이 된다.

English Abstract: The purpose of this study is to discuss about the economic and financial integration after the reunification of North and South Korea. The discussion mainly focuses on the financial policy tasks and responses the two Koreas should take, presupposing the North Korea’s economic situation at the final stage of the interim separated operation period. The more the economic situations of North and South Korea differ, the higher the cost would be for the integration; because the shock to the two economies will be so asymmetric that policy measures could hardly be unified. Moreover, the use of single currency may cause economic instability and generate loss, since both Koreas will not be able to use the currency that best reflects their own economy and have to abandon the autonomy of monetary policy. Then yet, oppositely remarking: the more the economic situations of the two Koreas resemble, the greater the benefits are from the economic integration and single currency use. Thus, as Optimum Currency Area (OCA) theory suggests, the proper time to terminate the interim separated operation is when the economic similarity of the two Koreas surpasses the threshold where gains and losses from integration coincide.

Note: Downloadable document is in Korean.

Keywords: Korea, Unification, Financial integration

Suggested Citation

Lee, Sangche and Park, Haesik, 통일 후 남북한 금융ㆍ재정 통합방안 (Financial and Fiscal Integration Plan between South and North Korea after Unification) (December 27, 2017). KIEP Long-term Trade Strategies Study Series 17-03. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3300029 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3300029

Sangche Lee (Contact Author)

Korea Institute of Finance ( email )

4-1 Myung-dong 1-ga
Seoul 100-021
United States

Haesik Park

Korea Institute of Finance ( email )

4-1 Myung-dong 1-ga
Seoul 100-021
United States

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