Never a Dull Moment: Entropy Risk in Commodity Markets
48 Pages Posted: 14 Dec 2018 Last revised: 13 Dec 2019
Date Written: January 28, 2019
We develop a new approach to determine investors' risk compensations for all distributional moments of a security. Using the concept of entropy, a summary of all moments of a risky security, we derive the exact link between expected returns and their compensation for entropy risk. Entropy risk premium (ERP), the difference of entropy under the physical and risk-neutral measures, indicates the cost to financially hedge against changes in all assets' risks. We find that ERP carries significant predictive power for the cross-section of commodity returns even after removing its variance and skewness risk components.
Keywords: commodity returns; entropy; options; risk premium
JEL Classification: G12, G13
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation