Gross Capital Flows by Banks, Corporates and Sovereigns
113 Pages Posted: 7 Jan 2019
Date Written: December 4, 2018
We construct a new data set of quarterly international capital flows by sector, with an emphasis on debt flows. Using our new data set, we establish four facts. First, the co-movement of capital inflows and outflows is driven by inflows and outflows vis-à-vis the domestic banking sector. Second, the procyclicality of capital inflows is driven by banks and corporates, whereas sovereigns' external liabilities move acyclically in advanced and countercyclically in emerging countries. Third, the procyclicality of capital outflows is driven by advanced countries' banks and emerging countries' sovereigns (reserves). Fourth, capital inflows and outflows decline for banks and corporates when global risk aversion (VIX) increases, whereas sovereign flows show no response. These facts are inconsistent with a large class of theoretical models.
Keywords: quarterly capital flows, business cycles, external corporate and bank debt, sovereign debt, VIX, systemic risk, emerging markets
JEL Classification: F21, F41, O1
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation