Non-Monetary News in Central Bank Communication

59 Pages Posted: 7 Jan 2019

See all articles by Anna Cieslak

Anna Cieslak

Duke University - Fuqua School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Andreas Schrimpf

Bank for International Settlements (BIS) - Monetary and Economic Department

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Date Written: December 5, 2018

Abstract

We quantify the importance of non-monetary news in central bank communication. Using evidence from four major central banks and a comprehensive classification of events, we decompose news conveyed by central banks into news about monetary policy, economic growth, and separately, shocks to risk premia. Our approach exploits high-frequency comovement of stocks and interest rates combined with monotonicity restrictions across the yield curve. We find significant differences in news composition depending on the communication channel used by central banks. Non-monetary news prevails in about 40% of policy decision announcements by the Fed and the ECB, and this fraction is even higher for communications that provide context to policy decisions such as press conferences. We show that non-monetary news accounts for a significant part of financial markets' reaction during the financial crisis and in the early recovery, while monetary shocks gain importance since 2013.

Keywords: central bank communication, monetary policy shocks, yield curve, stock-bond comovement, central bank information effects, risk premia

JEL Classification: G12, E43, E52, E58

Suggested Citation

Cieslak, Anna and Schrimpf, Andreas, Non-Monetary News in Central Bank Communication (December 5, 2018). BIS Working Paper No. 761, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3302328

Anna Cieslak (Contact Author)

Duke University - Fuqua School of Business ( email )

Box 90120
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HOME PAGE: https://sites.google.com/site/ancieslak/

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

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Andreas Schrimpf

Bank for International Settlements (BIS) - Monetary and Economic Department ( email )

Centralbahnplatz 2
CH-4002 Basel
Switzerland

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