Problems with Statistical Tests of Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentration Data Derived from Ice Cores

Abstract

Direct measurements of the concentrations of greenhouse gases were only made sporadically before 1958 for carbon dioxide, 1978 for nitrous oxide, and 1983 for methane. Prior to those dates, several researchers used concentrations derived from ice cores that have poor temporal accuracy. Several of the studies concluded that radiative forcing from the greenhouse gases is cointegrated with atmospheric temperatures. Monte Carlo simulations of statistical tests of data derived from ice cores are shown to yield spurious results when conducted using annual data. Claims of cointegration between radiative forcing of greenhouse gases and temperature are likely invalid.

Keywords: Greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, unit roots, cointegration

JEL Classification: Q54, C22