Representation of Decision-Making in European Agricultural Agent-Based Models

Agricultural Systems, 167, 143-160, 2018, DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2018.09.007

Posted: 8 Jan 2019

See all articles by Robert Huber

Robert Huber

ETH Zürich

Martha Bakker

Wageningen University and Research (WUR)

Alfons Balmann

Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO)

Thomas Berger

University of Hohenheim

Mike Bitthel

University of Cambridge - Department of Geography

Calum Brown

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology

Adrienne Grêt-Regamey

ETH Zürich

Hang Xiong

Huazhong Agricultural University; ETH Zurich; King's College London; University College Dublin

Quang Bao Le

ETH Zürich

Gabriele Mack

Government of the Swiss Confederation - Agroscope Reckenholz-Tänikon Research Station

Patrick Meyfroidt

Catholic University of Louvain (UCL); F.R.S.-FNRS

James Millington

King’s College London

Birgit Müller

UFZ - Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle

Gary Polhill

The Macaulay Institute

Zhanli Sun

Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO)

Roman Seidl

ETH Zürich

Christian Troost

University of Hohenheim

Robert Finger

ETH Zürich

Date Written: December 23, 2018

Abstract

The use of agent-based modelling approaches in ex-post and ex-ante evaluations of agricultural policies has been progressively increasing over the last few years. There are now a sufficient number of models that it is worth taking stock of the way these models have been developed. Here, we review 20 agricultural agent-based models (ABM) addressing heterogeneous decision-making processes in the context of European agriculture. The goals of this review were to i) develop a framework describing aspects of farmers' decision-making that are relevant from a farm-systems perspective, ii) reveal the current state-of-the-art in representing farmers' decision-making in the European agricultural sector, and iii) provide a critical reflection of underdeveloped research areas and on future opportunities in modelling decision-making. To compare different approaches in modelling farmers' behaviour, we focused on the European agricultural sector, which presents a specific character with its family farms, its single market and the common agricultural policy (CAP). We identified several key properties of farmers' decision-making: the multi-output nature of production; the importance of non-agricultural activities; heterogeneous household and family characteristics; and the need for concurrent short- and long-term decision-making. These properties were then used to define levels and types of decision-making mechanisms to structure a literature review. We find most models are sophisticated in the representation of farm exit and entry decisions, as well as the representation of long-term decisions and the consideration of farming styles or types using farm typologies. Considerably fewer attempts to model farmers' emotions, values, learning, risk and uncertainty or social interactions occur in the different case studies. We conclude that there is considerable scope to improve diversity in representation of decision-making and the integration of social interactions in agricultural agent-based modelling approaches by combining existing modelling approaches and promoting model inter-comparisons. Thus, this review provides a valuable entry point for agent-based modellers, agricultural systems modellers and data driven social scientists for the re-use and sharing of model components, code and data. An intensified dialogue could fertilize more coordinated and purposeful combinations and comparisons of ABM and other modelling approaches as well as better reconciliation of empirical data and theoretical foundations, which ultimately are key to developing improved models of agricultural systems.

Suggested Citation

Huber, Robert and Bakker, Martha and Balmann, Alfons and Berger, Thomas and Bitthel, Mike and Brown, Calum and Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne and Xiong, Hang and Le, Quang Bao and Mack, Gabriele and Meyfroidt, Patrick and Millington, James and Müller, Birgit and Polhill, Gary and Sun, Zhanli and Seidl, Roman and Troost, Christian and Finger, Robert, Representation of Decision-Making in European Agricultural Agent-Based Models (December 23, 2018). Agricultural Systems, 167, 143-160, 2018, DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2018.09.007, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3305886

Robert Huber (Contact Author)

ETH Zürich ( email )

Rämistrasse 101
ZUE F7
Zürich, 8092
Switzerland

Martha Bakker

Wageningen University and Research (WUR) ( email )

Hollandseweg 1
Wageningen, 6706KN
Netherlands

Alfons Balmann

Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO) ( email )

Theodor-Lieser-Str.2
Halle, 06120
Germany

Thomas Berger

University of Hohenheim ( email )

Fruwirthstr. 48
Stuttgart, 70599
Germany

Mike Bitthel

University of Cambridge - Department of Geography ( email )

Downing Place
Cambridge, CB2 3EN
United Kingdom
+44(0)1223 333361 (Phone)

Calum Brown

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology ( email )

Kaiserstraße 12
Karlsruhe, Baden Württemberg 76131
Germany

Adrienne Grêt-Regamey

ETH Zürich ( email )

HIL H 51.3
Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 15
Zürich, 8093
Switzerland

Hang Xiong

Huazhong Agricultural University

Wuhan, Hubei
Wuhan, Hubei 430070
China

HOME PAGE: http://www.hzau.edu.cn

ETH Zurich ( email )

Sonneggstrasse 33
Zurich, 8092
Switzerland

HOME PAGE: http://hangxiong.net

King's College London ( email )

Strand
London, England WC2R 2LS
United Kingdom

University College Dublin ( email )

Geary Institute for Public Policy
UCD, Belfield
Dublin, D04
Ireland
+35317164653 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://hangxiong.net

Quang Bao Le

ETH Zürich ( email )

Zürichbergstrasse 18
8092 Zurich, CH-1015
Switzerland

Gabriele Mack

Government of the Swiss Confederation - Agroscope Reckenholz-Tänikon Research Station ( email )

Zurich
Switzerland

Patrick Meyfroidt

Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) ( email )

Place Pasteur, 3
Louvain-la-Neuve, 1348
Belgium

F.R.S.-FNRS ( email )

Rue d’Egmont 5
Brussels, 1000
Belgium

James Millington

King’s College London ( email )

Strand
London, England WC2R 2LS
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://www.landscapemodelling.net

Birgit Müller

UFZ - Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle ( email )

Permoserstrasse 15
D-04318 Leipzig
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=15522

Gary Polhill

The Macaulay Institute ( email )

Aberdeen
United Kingdom

Zhanli Sun

Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO) ( email )

Theodor-Lieser-Str.2
Halle, 06120
Germany

Roman Seidl

ETH Zürich

Rämistrasse 101
ZUE F7
Zürich, 8092
Switzerland

Christian Troost

University of Hohenheim ( email )

Fruwirthstr. 48
Stuttgart, 70599
Germany

Robert Finger

ETH Zürich ( email )

Rämistrasse 101
ZUE F7
Zürich, 8092
Switzerland

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