Policy Uncertainty and Investment in Spain.

42 Pages Posted: 26 Dec 2018

Date Written: December 26, 2018


The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of policy uncertainty on firms’ investment decisions. We focus on Spain for the period 1998-2014. To measure policy-related uncertainty, we use a new macroeconomic indicator constructed for this country. We find strong evidence that policy uncertainty reduces corporate investment. Furthermore, the heterogeneous results suggest that the adverse effect of policy uncertainty is particularly relevant for highly vulnerable firms. In particular, non-exporting firms, small and medium enterprises, as well as firms in poorer financial condition are shown to decrease investment significantly more than their counterparts. Overall, these results are consistent with the hypotheses that policy-related uncertainty reduces corporate investment through increases in precautionary savings or to worsening of credit conditions.

Keywords: corporate investment, policy uncertainty, financial frictions.

JEL Classification: D80, E22, G18, G31, G38.

Suggested Citation

Dejuan-Bitria, Daniel and Ghirelli, Corinna, Policy Uncertainty and Investment in Spain. (December 26, 2018). Banco de Espana Working Paper No. 1848, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3306560 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3306560

Daniel Dejuan-Bitria (Contact Author)

Universitat Pompeu Fabra ( email )

Ramon Trias Fargas, 25-27
Barcelona, E-08005

Corinna Ghirelli

Bank of Spain ( email )

Calle Alcala, 48
Madrid, 28014

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