Optimal Harvest Responses to Environmental Forecasts Depend on Resource Knowledge and How It Can Be Used

S. Miller, A. Rassweiler, L. Dee, K. Kleisner, T. Mangin, R. Oliveros-Ramos, J. Tam, F. Chavez, M. Ñiquen, S.E. Lester, M. Burden, S. Gaines, and C. Costello. Optimal harvest responses to environmental forecasts depend on resource knowledge and how it can be used. Forthcoming at CJFAS.

34 Pages Posted: 11 Jan 2019

See all articles by Steve Miller

Steve Miller

University of Minnesota - Twin Cities - Department of Applied Economics

Andrew Rassweiler

Florida State University

Laura Dee

University of Minnesota - Twin Cities

Kristin Kleisner

Environmental Defense Fund

Tracey Mangin

University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB)

Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos

Instituto del Mar del Peru

Jorge Tam

Instituto del Mar del Peru

Francisco Chavez

Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute

Miguel Ñiquen

Instituto del Mar del Peru

Sarah Lester

Florida State University

Merrick Burden

Environmental Defense Fund

Steven D. Gaines

University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB)

Christopher Costello

University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB) - Donald Bren School of Environmental Science & Management

Date Written: July 19, 2018

Abstract

Managing natural resources under large-scale environmental fluctuations like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is likely to become increasingly important under climate change. Forecasts of environmental conditions are improving, but the best response to an unfavorable forecast remains unclear: many practitioners advocate reducing harvest as a more precautionary approach, while prior economic theory favors increasing harvest. Using logistic and age-structured fisheries models, we show that informational constraints — uncertain stock estimates and restrictions on harvest policies — play a central role in choosing how to respond to a forecasted shock. With perfect knowledge and no policy constraints, risk-neutral managers should increase harvest when a negative shock is forecast. However, informational constraints may drive the optimal response to a forecast of a negative shock toward or away from precaution. Precautionary forecast responses arise when informational constraints make the harvest policy insufficiently sensitive to the true resource status. In contrast, uncertainty about the stock size can lead to more aggressive forecast responses when stock dynamics are nonlinear and not all fish are susceptible to fishing.

Suggested Citation

Miller, Steve and Rassweiler, Andrew and Dee, Laura and Kleisner, Kristin and Mangin, Tracey and Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo and Tam, Jorge and Chavez, Francisco and Ñiquen, Miguel and Lester, Sarah and Burden, Merrick and Gaines, Steven D. and Costello, Christopher, Optimal Harvest Responses to Environmental Forecasts Depend on Resource Knowledge and How It Can Be Used (July 19, 2018). S. Miller, A. Rassweiler, L. Dee, K. Kleisner, T. Mangin, R. Oliveros-Ramos, J. Tam, F. Chavez, M. Ñiquen, S.E. Lester, M. Burden, S. Gaines, and C. Costello. Optimal harvest responses to environmental forecasts depend on resource knowledge and how it can be used. Forthcoming at CJFAS.. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3309186

Steve Miller (Contact Author)

University of Minnesota - Twin Cities - Department of Applied Economics ( email )

MN
United States

Andrew Rassweiler

Florida State University ( email )

Tallahasse, FL 32306
United States

Laura Dee

University of Minnesota - Twin Cities ( email )

420 Delaware St. SE
Minneapolis, MN 55455
United States

Kristin Kleisner

Environmental Defense Fund ( email )

1875 Connecticut ave
257 Park Avenue South
Washington, DC 20009
United States

Tracey Mangin

University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB) ( email )

Santa Barbara, CA 93106
United States

Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos

Instituto del Mar del Peru ( email )

Jorge Tam

Instituto del Mar del Peru ( email )

Francisco Chavez

Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute ( email )

Moss Landing, CA 95039
United States

Miguel Ñiquen

Instituto del Mar del Peru ( email )

Sarah Lester

Florida State University ( email )

Tallahasse, FL 32306
United States

Merrick Burden

Environmental Defense Fund ( email )

1875 Connecticut ave
257 Park Avenue South
Washington, DC 20009
United States

Steven D. Gaines

University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB) ( email )

Santa Barbara, CA 93106
United States

Christopher Costello

University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB) - Donald Bren School of Environmental Science & Management ( email )

4670 Physical Sciences North
Santa Barbara, CA 93106-5131
United States
(805) 893-5802 (Phone)
(805) 893-7612 (Fax)

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