Obvious Belief Elicitation

10 Pages Posted: 9 Jan 2019

See all articles by Elias Tsakas

Elias Tsakas

Maastricht University - Department of Economics

Date Written: January 7, 2019


An investigator is interested in arbitrarily approximating a subject’s latent beliefs in obviously dominant strategies (Li, 2017). We prove that Karni’s ascending mechanism (Karni, 2009) does not have an obviously dominant strategy. Thus, we introduce the novel descending Karni mechanism which always has obviously dominant strategies. Furthermore, under the assumption that the subject chooses an obviously dominant strategy, the true beliefs can be approximated with arbitrary precision with our mechanism. All our results hold for a very broad class of likelihood relations, going well beyond those that are represented by probabilistic beliefs.

Keywords: belief elicitation, Karni mechanism, obvious dominance

JEL Classification: C90, C91, D81, D82, D83

Suggested Citation

Tsakas, Elias, Obvious Belief Elicitation (January 7, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3311502 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3311502

Elias Tsakas (Contact Author)

Maastricht University - Department of Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 616
Maastricht, 6200 MD

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