Overestimation in the Growth Rates of National Income in Recent Years? – An Analyses Based on Extending GDP04-05 through Other Indicators of Output

Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad-380 015 India, WP No. 2019-01-01

15 Pages Posted: 15 Jan 2019

See all articles by Sebastian Morris

Sebastian Morris

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad - Economics

Tejshwi Kumari

Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur

Date Written: January 1, 2019

Abstract

Quarterly indices of output like those of Industrial Production, other measures of production like net sales, exports, of companies for which data is available, besides proxies like credit to the sector, and indices of price levels have been used to forward project the growth rates of GDP04-05, for the principal sectors of the National Income Accounts (NAS). These were then compared with the growth rates given by the new Gross Value Added (GVA11-12) at constant price measure. It is very highly probable that some sectors of the National Accounts Statistics (NAS) notably Manufacturing, and Trade, Transport, Storage, Hotels and Communication Sectors were overestimated, especially in periods when the output (economic activity) was slowing down. This questions the use of the new GVA series for macroeconomic (policy) actions, wherein more than extensiveness of coverage, the movements over time of the measure have to be reliable and accurate. This is especially so because manufacturing and its related sector – trade etc., are the core sectors which are responsive to changes in policy and to shocks (that could be countered), wherein there is deep overestimation. Some evening out of the overestimation is noticed over the upswing in the business cycle since 2017:2. However the demonetization which rudely reduced demand did not allow the “phase shifting” and “flattening” aspects, which the new GVA series possibly imposes to be examined in detail, although the same is suggested.

Keywords: India, Growth, National Income, New Series, Manufacturing, Overestimation, Index of Industrial Production, Demonetization

JEL Classification: E7, C1, O4, E3

Suggested Citation

Morris, Sebastian and Kumari, Tejshwi, Overestimation in the Growth Rates of National Income in Recent Years? – An Analyses Based on Extending GDP04-05 through Other Indicators of Output (January 1, 2019). Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad-380 015 India, WP No. 2019-01-01 . Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3311951 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3311951

Sebastian Morris (Contact Author)

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad - Economics ( email )

Vastrapur
Ahmedabad 380015, Gujarat
India
+917966324805 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://faculty.iima.ac.in/~morris/

Tejshwi Kumari

Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur ( email )

Kharagpur
West Medinipur, WA West Bengal 721302
India

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