The Euro's Trade Effect: A Meta‐Analysis

24 Pages Posted: 9 Jan 2019

See all articles by Petr Polák

Petr Polák

Charles University in Prague

Date Written: February 2019


Many studies have estimated the trade effect of the euro, but their results vary greatly. This meta‐analysis collects 3323 estimates of the euro effect along with 28 characteristics of estimation design from almost 60 studies and quantitatively examines the literature. The results show evidence of publication bias, but they also suggest that the bias decreases over time. After correcting for the bias, the meta‐analysis shows that the literature is consistent with an effect ranging between 2% and 6%. The results from Bayesian model averaging, which takes into account model uncertainty, show that the differences among estimates are systematically driven by data sources, data structure, control variables, and estimation techniques. The mean reported estimate of the euro's trade effect conditional on best‐practice approach is 3%, but is not statistically different from zero.

Keywords: euro, meta‐analysis, publication bias, Rose effect, trade

Suggested Citation

Polák, Petr, The Euro's Trade Effect: A Meta‐Analysis (February 2019). Journal of Economic Surveys, Vol. 33, Issue 1, pp. 101-124, 2019, Available at SSRN: or

Petr Polák (Contact Author)

Charles University in Prague ( email )

Celetná 13
Praha 1, 116 36
Czech Republic

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