Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus

42 Pages Posted: 14 Jan 2019

See all articles by Karel Musil

Karel Musil

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Mikhail Pranovich

University of Cambridge; International Monetary Fund (IMF); Joint Vienna Insitute

Jan Vlček

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Date Written: December 2018

Abstract

Belarusian authorities contemplate transiting to inflation targeting. The paper suggests a small structural model at the core of the forecasting and policy analysis system. A well-researched canonical structure of Berg, A., Karam, P. and D. Laxton (2006) is extended to capture specifics of Belarusian economy and macroeconomic policy. The modified model's policy block reflects a monetary targeting regime and allows for transition from it to an interest-rate-based framework. Adding wages, directed lending and dollarization allow for studying implications of activist wage policy, state program lending, and dollarization for macroeconomic stability and the strength of the policy transmission mechanism.

Keywords: Belarus, Dollarization, Europe, Monetary policy, Quarterly Projection Model, Nominal Wages, Fiscal Impulse, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Quantitative Policy Modeling

JEL Classification: E47, E52, C54

Suggested Citation

Musil, Karel and Pranovich, Mikhail and Pranovich, Mikhail and Vlcek, Jan, Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus (December 2018). IMF Working Paper No. 18/254, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3314587

Karel Musil (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Mikhail Pranovich

University of Cambridge

Trinity Ln
Cambridge, CB2 1TN
United Kingdom

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Joint Vienna Insitute

Mariahilferstrasse 97
Wien, A-1090
Austria

Jan Vlcek

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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