Where Is the Middle Class? Inequality, Gender and the Shape of the Upper Tail from 60 Million English Death and Probate Records, 1892-2016

38 Pages Posted: 16 Jan 2019

See all articles by Neil Cummins

Neil Cummins

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Economic History

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: January 13, 2019

Abstract

This paper analyses a newly constructed individual level dataset of every English death and probate from 1892-2016. The estimated top wealth shares match closely existing estimates. However, this analysis clearly shows that the 20th century's `Great Equalization' of wealth stalled in mid-century. The probate rate, which captures the proportion of English with any significant wealth at death rose from 10% in the 1890s to 40% by 1950 and has stagnated to 2016. Despite the large declines in the wealth share of the top 1%, from 73% to 20%, the median English person died with almost nothing throughout. All changes in inequality after 1950 involve a reshuffling of wealth within the top 30%. Further, I find that a log-linear distribution fits the empirical data better than a Pareto power law. Finally, I show that the top wealth shares are increasingly and systematically male as one ascends in wealth, 1892-1992, but this has equalized over the 20th century.

Keywords: inequality, economic history, big data

JEL Classification: N00, N33, N34, D31

Suggested Citation

Cummins, Neil, Where Is the Middle Class? Inequality, Gender and the Shape of the Upper Tail from 60 Million English Death and Probate Records, 1892-2016 (January 13, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3314935 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3314935

Neil Cummins (Contact Author)

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Economic History ( email )

Houghton Street
London WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://www.neilcummins.com

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