Optimized Portfolio Using a Forward-Looking Expected Tail Loss

33 Pages Posted: 31 Oct 2019

Date Written: October 23, 2019


In this paper, I construct an optimal portfolio by minimizing the expected tail loss (ETL) derived from the forward-looking natural distribution of the Recovery Theorem (RT). The RT is one of the first successful attempts at deriving an unparameterized natural distribution of future asset returns. This distribution can be used as the criterion function in an expected tail loss (ETL) portfolio optimization problem. I find that the portfolio constructed using the RT outperforms both the equally-weighted portfolio and a portfolio constructed using historical ETL. The portfolio constructed using the RT has the smallest historical tail loss, smallest maximum drawdown, highest Sortino Ratio, and highest Sharpe Ratio.

Keywords: Recovery theorem, portfolio theory, expected shortfall

JEL Classification: G00, G1, G12

Suggested Citation

Sanford, Anthony, Optimized Portfolio Using a Forward-Looking Expected Tail Loss (October 23, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3316249

Anthony Sanford (Contact Author)

University of Maryland ( email )

4113AA Van Munching Hall
College Park, MD 20742
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.terpconnect.umd.edu/~sanfoan/

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