The Financial Cycle and Recession Risk

13 Pages Posted: 29 Jan 2019

See all articles by Claudio E. V. Borio

Claudio E. V. Borio

Bank for International Settlements (BIS) - Research and Policy Analysis

Mathias Drehmann

Bank for International Settlements (BIS)

Fan Dora Xia

Bank for International Settlements (BIS) - Monetary and Economic Department

Date Written: December 1, 2018

Abstract

Financial cycle booms can end in crises and, even if they do not, they tend to weaken growth. Given their slow build-up, do they convey information about recession risk? We compare the predictive performance of different financial cycle proxies with that of the term spread - a popular recession indicator. In contrast to much of the literature, our analysis covers a large sample of advanced and emerging market economies. We find that, in general, financial cycle measures provide valuable information and tend to outperform the term spread.

JEL Classification: C33, E37, E44

Suggested Citation

Borio, Claudio E.V. and Drehmann, Mathias and Xia, Fan Dora, The Financial Cycle and Recession Risk (December 1, 2018). BIS Quarterly Review December 2018, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3316364

Claudio E.V. Borio (Contact Author)

Bank for International Settlements (BIS) - Research and Policy Analysis ( email )

CH-4002 Basel, Basel-Stadt
Switzerland

Mathias Drehmann

Bank for International Settlements (BIS) ( email )

Centralbahnplatz 2
CH-4002 Basel
Switzerland

Fan Dora Xia

Bank for International Settlements (BIS) - Monetary and Economic Department ( email )

Centralbahnplatz 2
CH-4002 Basel
Switzerland

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