Dynamic Regression Models of Forecasting Indicators of Social and Economic Security

Economic Sciences (2019)

9 Pages Posted: 29 Jan 2019

See all articles by Dzmitry Shvaiba

Dzmitry Shvaiba

Belarusian National Technical University; State Commitee on Science and Technology of the Republic of Belarus

Date Written: January 18, 2019

Abstract

Dynamic multi-factor regression models make it possible to take into account the dynamics of the proportions of the resulting indicator of socio-economic security and indicators in the retrospective period. The defects of such a model include the complexity of selecting indicators and determining their values in the lead period, the difficulty of forming multivariate static regression models, the development of predictive models of regression coefficients. Without paying attention to the statistical significance of multivariate models used to form a dynamic model, the values of regression coefficients over the years have all the chances to fluctuate significantly in the time series of these coefficients. The alternately decreasing or rising regression coefficients due to the modification of the impact of indicators on the dynamics of the values of the resulting indicator of socio-economic security often does not allow to create a forecast model.

Keywords: socio-economic security, the government, society, enterprise, employee, threat, security, interests, economics, analysis, system

JEL Classification: H10, J58, P35, Z13

Suggested Citation

Shvaiba, Dzmitry, Dynamic Regression Models of Forecasting Indicators of Social and Economic Security (January 18, 2019). Economic Sciences (2019), Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3318034

Dzmitry Shvaiba (Contact Author)

Belarusian National Technical University ( email )

65 F. Skaryna Avenue
220013 Minsk
Belarus

State Commitee on Science and Technology of the Republic of Belarus

Minsk
Belarus

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