The Effects of a Baby Boom on Stock Prices and Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Social Security

Abel, Andrew B.

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The Effects of a Baby Boom on Stock Prices and Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Social Security

NBER Working Paper No. w9210

33 Pages Posted: 20 Sep 2002 Last revised: 2 Sep 2022

See all articles by Andrew B. Abel

Andrew B. Abel

University of Pennsylvania - Finance Department; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

There are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: September 2002

Abstract

Is the stock market boom a result of the baby boom? This paper develops an overlapping generations model in which a baby boom is modeled as a high realization of a random birth rate, and the price of capital is determined endogenously by a convex cost of adjustment. A baby boom increases national saving and investment and thus causes an increase in the price of capital. The price of capital is mean-reverting so the initial increase in the price of capital is followed by a decrease. Social Security can potentially affect national saving and investment, though in the long run, it does not affect the price of capital.

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Abel, Andrew B., The Effects of a Baby Boom on Stock Prices and Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Social Security (September 2002). NBER Working Paper No. w9210, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=332254