Medium Term Treatment and Side Effects of Quantitative Easing: International Evidence

49 Pages Posted: 31 Jan 2019

See all articles by Roland Beck

Roland Beck

European Central Bank (ECB)

Ioana Duca

European Central Bank (ECB)

Livio Stracca

European Central Bank (ECB)

Date Written: January 29, 2019

Abstract

We use a cross-country sample of monthly observations for quantitative easing (QE) treatments in order to study the causal effect of such policies on a large set of economic and financial outcome variables. We address potential endogeneity by re-randomising the sample and applying the augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW) estimator. Our results show that QE policies do affect the central bank balance sheet and asset prices, in particular long term yields, equity prices and exchange rates in the expected direction. Most importantly, we find that QE policies lead to a sustained rise in the CPI and in inflation expectations. However, our findings suggest that the main transmission channel does not appear to be stronger aggregate demand impacting inflation through the Phillips curve, but rather exchange rate depreciation. Finally, we do not find any evidence for side effects and increases in risk taking following QE, with real house prices and real credit not increasing or falling, and no downward effect on stock market volatility.

Keywords: unconvential monetary policy, quantitative easing, augmented inverse probability weighting estimation, AIPW

JEL Classification: E5, F3

Suggested Citation

Beck, Roland and Duca, Ioana and Stracca, Livio, Medium Term Treatment and Side Effects of Quantitative Easing: International Evidence (January 29, 2019). ECB Working Paper No. 2229 (2019); ISBN 978-92-899-3491-6 , Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3325867

Roland Beck (Contact Author)

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Ioana Duca

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Livio Stracca

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany
0049 69 13440 (Phone)
0044 69 1344 6000 (Fax)

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