Does It Pay to Fight Crime? Evidence From the Pacification of Slums in Rio de Janeiro

66 Pages Posted: 11 Feb 2019 Last revised: 7 Apr 2019

See all articles by Christophe Bellégo

Christophe Bellégo

CREST (Center for Research in Economics and Statistics) - ENSAE (National School for Statistics and Economic Administration)

Joeffrey Drouard

University of Rennes 1

Date Written: January 31, 2019

Abstract

This paper estimates the effects of policy fighting drug gangs with official crime data. We use the pacification program of favelas in Rio de Janeiro, whose progressive rollout across several districts allows identifying its causal effects on several crime indicators. By combining a proxy variable and a simple structural model, we correct the bias resulting from the endogenous crime reporting change associated with the policy. We find that the program decreases murder rate by 7 percent, but increases assault rate by 51 percent, resulting in a rise in the total number of crimes. Our results are explained both by marginal and absolute crime deterrence effects and the fact that drug gangs secure the territories under their control.

Keywords: Criminal Governance, Reporting Bias, Pacification Policy, Drug Gangs, Brazil

JEL Classification: D73, D74

Suggested Citation

Bellégo, Christophe and Drouard, Joeffrey, Does It Pay to Fight Crime? Evidence From the Pacification of Slums in Rio de Janeiro (January 31, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3326563 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3326563

Christophe Bellégo

CREST (Center for Research in Economics and Statistics) - ENSAE (National School for Statistics and Economic Administration) ( email )

Palaiseau
France

Joeffrey Drouard (Contact Author)

University of Rennes 1 ( email )

7 place Hoche
Rennes, 35065
France

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
23
Abstract Views
154
PlumX Metrics