Dynamic Determinants of Access to Weapons: Global Evidence

Forthcoming: Foreign Trade Review

African Governance and Development Institute Paper No. WP/19/008

19 Pages Posted: 14 Feb 2019

See all articles by Simplice Asongu

Simplice Asongu

African Governance and Development Institute

Joseph Nnanna

Development Bank of Nigeria

Date Written: February 3, 2019

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of and persistence in access to weapons using a global sample of 163 countries for the period 2010 to 2015. The empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments (GMM). Hysteresis in access to weapons is consistently more apparent in countries with below-median levels in access to weapons, compared to their counterparts with above-median levels in access to weapons. The hysteresis hypothesis within this context is the propensity of past values of access to weapons to influence future values of access to weapons. Factors that consistently drive access to weapons are: perceptions of crime; criminality; conflict intensity; political instability; military expenditure, violent demonstrations and terrorism. The effects of these drivers are contingent on initial levels of access to weapons. Policy recommendations for managing access to weapons are discussed.

Keywords: Access to Weapons; Global Evidence; Persistence; Arms; Security

JEL Classification: H56; L64; K42; P50

Suggested Citation

Asongu, Simplice and Nnanna, Joseph, Dynamic Determinants of Access to Weapons: Global Evidence (February 3, 2019). Forthcoming: Foreign Trade Review. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3328018 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3328018

Simplice Asongu (Contact Author)

African Governance and Development Institute ( email )

P.O. Box 8413
Yaoundé, 8413
Cameroon

Joseph Nnanna

Development Bank of Nigeria ( email )

Maitama, Abuja
Nigeria

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