The Dark Figure of Sexual Recidivism

33 Pages Posted: 4 Feb 2019

See all articles by Nicholas Scurich

Nicholas Scurich

University of California, Irvine

Richard S. John

University of Southern California

Date Written: February 4, 2019

Abstract

Empirical studies of sexual offender recidivism have proliferated in recent decades. Virtually all of the studies define recidivism as a new legal charge or conviction for a sexual crime, and these studies tend to find recidivism rates on the order of 5-15% after 5 years and 10-25% after 10+ years. It is uncontroversial that such a definition of recidivism underestimates the true rate of sexual recidivism because most sexual crime is not reported to legal authorities, the so-called “dark figure of crime.” To estimate the magnitude of the dark figure of sexual recidivism, this paper uses a probabilistic simulation approach in conjunction with a.) victim self-report survey data about the rate of reporting sexual crime to legal authorities, b.) offender self-report data about the number of victims per offender, and c.) different assumptions about the chances of being convicted of a new sexual offense once it is reported. Under any configuration of assumptions, the dark figure is substantial, and as a consequence, the disparity between recidivism defined as a new legal charge or conviction for a sex crime and recidivism defined as actually committing a new sexual crime is large. These findings call into question the utility of recidivism studies that rely exclusively on official crime statistics to define sexual recidivism, and highlight the need for additional, long-term studies that use a variety of different measures to assess whether or not sexual recidivism has occurred.

Suggested Citation

Scurich, Nicholas and John, Richard S., The Dark Figure of Sexual Recidivism (February 4, 2019). UC Irvine School of Law Research Paper No. 2019-09. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3328831

Nicholas Scurich (Contact Author)

University of California, Irvine ( email )

Campus Drive
Irvine, CA 62697-3125
United States

Richard S. John

University of Southern California ( email )

2250 Alcazar Street
Los Angeles, CA 90089
United States

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