Inference in Bayesian Proxy-Svars
48 Pages Posted: 5 Feb 2019 Last revised: 21 Feb 2019
Date Written: 2018-12-01
Motivated by the increasing use of external instruments to identify structural vector autoregressions (SVARs), we develop algorithms for exact finite sample inference in this class of time series models, commonly known as proxy-SVARs. Our algorithms make independent draws from the normal-generalized-normal family of conjugate posterior distributions over the structural parameterization of a proxy-SVAR. Importantly, our techniques can handle the case of set identification and hence they can be used to relax the additional exclusion restrictions unrelated to the external instruments often imposed to facilitate inference when more than one instrument are used to identify more than one equation, as in Mertens and Montiel-Olea (2018).
Keywords: SVARs, external instruments, importance sampler
JEL Classification: C15, C32
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation