Rematch: Islamic Politics, Mobilization, and the Indonesian Presidential Election

Political Science, Conditional Accept, Forthcoming

15 Pages Posted: 13 Feb 2019 Last revised: 15 Feb 2019

See all articles by Dimitar D. Gueorguiev

Dimitar D. Gueorguiev

Syracuse University - Department of Political Science

Paul J. Schuler

University of Arizona

Kai Ostwald

University of British Columbia (UBC)

Date Written: February 6, 2019

Abstract

Indonesia’s 2019 presidential election brings a rematch between incumbent Joko Widodo and Prabowo Subianto, though against a backdrop of increasingly active conservative Islamic movements. Analyses of this contest — as well as of contemporary Indonesian politics more generally —are often based on assumptions around which constituencies matter and which political fact ions they support. This paper examines those assumptions using an original dataset of fine-grained returns and census data, including a latent variable to capture the independent effect of Islamic conservatism. We find that conservative Muslim areas overwhelmingly supported Prabowo in 2014, but turned out in relatively low numbers. By contrast, rural poor areas turned out heavily for Widodo. This suggests that the conservative vote was under-mobilized and has a greater electoral potential than previously demonstrated. Given the recent mobilization by conservative segments in society, observers should be prepared for significant shifts in the Indonesian electorate in 2019 and beyond.

Keywords: Indonesia; Election; Islam; Democracy; Turnout

Suggested Citation

Gueorguiev, Dimitar D. and Schuler, Paul J. and Ostwald, Kai, Rematch: Islamic Politics, Mobilization, and the Indonesian Presidential Election (February 6, 2019). Political Science, Conditional Accept, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3329918

Dimitar D. Gueorguiev (Contact Author)

Syracuse University - Department of Political Science ( email )

100 Eggers Hall
Syracuse, NY 13244
United States
3154430309 (Phone)

Paul J. Schuler

University of Arizona ( email )

Department of History
Tucson, AZ 85721
United States

Kai Ostwald

University of British Columbia (UBC) ( email )

1855 West Mall
Vancouver, British Columbia BC V6T 1Z4
Canada

HOME PAGE: http://www.kaiostwald.me

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