Assessing the Uncertainty in Central Banks' Inflation Outlooks

51 Pages Posted: 11 Feb 2019 Last revised: 18 Nov 2021

See all articles by Malte Knüppel

Malte Knüppel

Deutsche Bundesbank - Research Centre

Guido Schultefrankenfeld

Deutsche Bundesbank

Date Written: 2018

Abstract

Recent research has found that macroeconomic survey forecasts of uncertainty exhibit several deficiencies, such as horizon-dependent biases and lower accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation uncertainty forecasts from the Bank of England, the Banco Central do Brasil, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank and the Sveriges Riksbank to assess whether central banks' uncertainty forecasts might be subject to similar problems. We find that, while most central banks' uncertainty forecasts also tend to be underconfident at short horizons and overconfident at longer horizons, they are mostly not significantly biased. Moreover, they tend to be at least as precise as unconditional uncertainty forecasts from two different approaches.

Keywords: Density Forecasts, Fan Charts, Forecast Optimality, Forecast Accuracy

JEL Classification: C13, C32, C53

Suggested Citation

Knüppel, Malte and Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, Assessing the Uncertainty in Central Banks' Inflation Outlooks (2018). Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 56/2018, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3331451 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3331451

Malte Knüppel (Contact Author)

Deutsche Bundesbank - Research Centre ( email )

Wilhelm-Epstein-Str. 14
D-60431 Frankfurt/Main
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://sites.google.com/view/malteknueppel-research/home

Guido Schultefrankenfeld

Deutsche Bundesbank ( email )

Wilhelm-Epstein-Str. 14
Research Centre
Frankfurt/Main, DE Hesse 60431
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.bundesbank.de/research_guido_schultefrankenfeld

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