Disruption and Credit Markets

44 Pages Posted: 11 Feb 2019

See all articles by Bo Becker

Bo Becker

Stockholm School of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); ECGI

Victoria Ivashina

Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: February 2019

Abstract

In the past thirty years, defaults on corporate bonds have been substantially higher than the historical average. We show that this increase in credit risk can be largely attributed to an increase in the rate at which new and fast-growing firms displace incumbents (a phenomenon sometimes referred to as 'disruptive innovation'). Industries with a lager presence of firms newly listed on the stock market, as well as industries that receive funding from venture capital, have a higher loss of revenue market share for established firms and subsequently see a rise in corporate bond defaults. Patent filings by individuals as opposed to corporations also predict defaults. These results are not affected by inclusion of controls for industry exposure to offshore manufacturing.

Keywords: corporate bonds, default, Disruption

JEL Classification: G12, G30, G32

Suggested Citation

Becker, Bo and Ivashina, Victoria, Disruption and Credit Markets (February 2019). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP13508. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3332311

Bo Becker (Contact Author)

Stockholm School of Economics ( email )

Drottninggatan 98
Dept. of Finance
111 60 Stockholm, 11160
Sweden

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

ECGI ( email )

c/o ECARES ULB CP 114
B-1050 Brussels
Belgium

Victoria Ivashina

Harvard University ( email )

Harvard Business School
Baker Library 233
Boston, MA 02163
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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