Санкции: всерьез и надолго (Sanctions: Serious and For Long)

Published by: "DELO" at RANEPA (Moscow) / Scientific Report Series: economics. 80 p. (2019)

80 Pages Posted: 10 Mar 2019 Last revised: 25 May 2019

See all articles by Alexander Knobel

Alexander Knobel

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Studies

Kniaz Bagdasaryan

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Moscow Campus, Institute of Applied Economic Research

А. Н. Лощенкова

Independent

Ksenia Proka

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Moscow Campus

Date Written: February 12, 2019

Abstract

Russian Abstract: В докладе рассмотрены теоретические аспекты экономических санкций для оценки и классификации ограничительных мер, применяемых странами-инициаторами по отношению к России. Предложены рекомендации для проведения экономической политики в условиях санкций на основе анализа применяемых ограничительных мер в отношении России, их влияния на экономику, а также оценки опыта различных стран по противодействию санкциям. Приведена оценка негативного влияния санкций на экономику Российской Федерации — порядка примерно 1 п. п. ВВП в год. Показано, что наиболее эффективной политикой противодействия санкциям является не введение симметричных мер и закрытие рынков товаров / услуг / капитала, а политика «агрессивной» открытости рынков для сотрудничества. Выявлено, что основной негативный канал влияния санкций на российскую экономику состоит не столько в уровне санкций, сколько в поддержании неопределенности относительно будущих санкционных параметров.

В связи с этим в краткосрочной и среднесрочной перспективе целесообразно направить усилия на стабилизацию текущего уровня санкций для снижения неопределенности, а не на их полную или частичную отмену.

English Abstract: The report discusses the theoretical aspects of economic sanctions to assess and classify the restrictive measures used by the initiating countries in relation to Russia. Recommendations are proposed for the conduct of economic policy in the context of sanctions based on an analysis of the restrictive measures applied to Russia, their impact on the economy, as well as the assessment of the experience of various countries in countering sanctions. An assessment of the negative impact of sanctions on the economy of the Russian Federation is given - about 1 pp of GDP per year. It is shown that the most effective anti-sanctions policy is not the introduction of symmetrical measures and the closure of the markets for goods / services / capital, but the policy of “aggressive” openness of markets to cooperation. It is revealed that the main negative channel of the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy consists not so much in the level of sanctions as in maintaining uncertainty about future sanctions parameters. In this regard, in the short and medium term, it is advisable to focus on stabilizing the current level of sanctions to reduce uncertainty, rather than on their full or partial cancellation.

Note: Downloadable document is in Russian.

JEL Classification: F51

Suggested Citation

Knobel, Alexander and Bagdasaryan, Kniaz and Лощенкова, А. Н. and Proka, Ksenia, Санкции: всерьез и надолго (Sanctions: Serious and For Long) (February 12, 2019). Published by: "DELO" at RANEPA (Moscow) / Scientific Report Series: economics. 80 p. (2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3333008

Alexander Knobel (Contact Author)

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

3-5 Gazetny Lane
Moscow, 125009
Russia

Russian Presidential Academy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Studies ( email )

Vernadsky Ave. 82
Moscow, 119571
Russia

Kniaz Bagdasaryan

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Moscow Campus, Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Prospekt Vernadskogo 84
Moscow, 119606
Russia

HOME PAGE: http://www.ranepa.ru/prepodavateli/sotrudnik/?2123

А. Н. Лощенкова

Independent

No Address Available
United States

Ksenia Proka

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Moscow Campus ( email )

Moscow
Russia

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