Multiple Barrier-Crossings of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Diffusion in Consecutive Periods
39 Pages Posted: 6 Mar 2019 Last revised: 16 Oct 2020
Date Written: February 13, 2019
We investigate the joint distribution and the multivariate survival functions for the maxima of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process in consecutive time-intervals. A PDE method, alongside an eigenfunction expansion, is adopted with which we first calculate the distribution and the survival functions for the maximum of a homogeneous OU-process in a single interval. By a deterministic time-change and a parameter translation, this result can be extended to an inhomogeneous OU-process. Next, we derive a general formula for the joint distribution and the survival functions for the maxima of a continuous Markov process in consecutive periods. With these results, one can obtain semi-analytical expressions for the joint distribution and the multi- variate survival functions for the maxima of an OU-process, with piecewise constant parameter functions, in consecutive time periods. The joint distribution and the survival functions can be evaluated numerically by an iterated quadrature scheme, which can be implemented efficiently by matrix multiplications. Moreover, we show that the computation can be further simplified to the product of single quadratures by imposing a mild condition. Such results may be used for the modelling of heatwaves and related risk management challenges.
Keywords: Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process, First-Passage-Time, Multiple Barrier-Crossings and Joint Survival Function, Time-Dependent Barriers, Markov Process, Infinite Series Approximation and Tail Convergence, Quadrature and Monte Carlo Schemes, Numerical Efficiency
JEL Classification: 41A, 60E, 60G, 60J, 65C, 65D
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