Political Tension and Stock Markets in the Arabian Peninsula

9 Pages Posted: 21 Feb 2019

See all articles by Alanoud Al-Maadid

Alanoud Al-Maadid

Qatar University

Guglielmo Maria Caporale

Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance; London South Bank University; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute); German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)

Fabio Spagnolo

Brunel University London - Economics and Finance

Nicola Spagnolo

Brunel University London - Economics and Finance

Date Written: 2018

Abstract

This note investigates the effects of the recent political tensions in the Arabian peninsula on the linkages between the stock markets of the leading GCC countries by estimating a VAR-GARCH (1,1) model at a weekly frequency. The results indicate that the June 2017 crisis lowered stock market returns and generally led to greater volatility spillovers within the region. This evidence supports the need for further financial integration and suggests fewer portfolio diversification opportunities for investors in the GCC region.

Keywords: GCC, multivariate GARCH, political tension

JEL Classification: C320, F360, G150

Suggested Citation

Al-Maadid, Alanoud and Caporale, Guglielmo Maria and Spagnolo, Fabio and Spagnolo, Nicola, Political Tension and Stock Markets in the Arabian Peninsula (2018). CESifo Working Paper No. 7341. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3338668

Alanoud Al-Maadid (Contact Author)

Qatar University ( email )

College of Law
Qatar University
Doha, 2713
Qatar

Guglielmo Maria Caporale

Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance ( email )

Kingston Lane
Marie Jahoda Building
Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH
United Kingdom
+44 1895 266713 (Phone)
+44 1895 269770 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.brunel.ac.uk/about/acad/bbs/bbsstaff/ef_staff/guglielmocaporale/

London South Bank University ( email )

Centre for Monetary and Financial Economics
London
United Kingdom

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) ( email )

Mohrenstraße 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

Fabio Spagnolo

Brunel University London - Economics and Finance ( email )

Uxbridge UB8 3PH
United Kingdom
+44 1895 816383 (Phone)
+44 1895 203303 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.brunel.ac.uk/depts/ecf/Staff/SpagnoloF/Main.htm

Nicola Spagnolo

Brunel University London - Economics and Finance ( email )

Uxbridge UB8 3PH
United Kingdom

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