Asian Development Outlook Forecast Accuracy 2007–2016

Abstract

This paper assesses the accuracy of Asian Development Outlook growth and inflation forecasts for 43 Asian economies from 2007 to 2016, against the benchmark of World Economic Outlook projections by the International Monetary Fund. They are found to overlap quite closely, notwithstanding much heterogeneity across countries and years. Forecast accuracy sharpens over time as additional data and evidence become available and get incorporated during quarterly revisions. However, errors widen during crisis years as forecasters struggle to reflect such events in their projections.

Keywords: Asian Development Bank, Asian Development Outlook, International Monetary Fund, macroeconomic forecasts, World Economic Outlook

JEL Classification: E17, E37