Бюджет как инструмент экономического развития (Budget As a Tool for Economic Development)

72 Pages Posted: 15 Mar 2019

See all articles by Sergei Belev

Sergei Belev

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research; Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Konstantin Vekerle

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Moscow Campus

E. Gurvich

Economic Expert Group (EEG)

Anna Zolotareva

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Moscow Campus; Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Nikita Moguchev

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research

Ilya Sokolov

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Moscow Campus

Tatiana Tischenko

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research

Irina Filippova

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Date Written: February 11, 2019

Abstract

Russian Abstract: В последнее десятилетие в России наблюдается сокращение совокупных бюджетных расходов — с 41% ВВП в 2009 г. до 34,5% в 2018 г. Однако данное снижение расходов может маскироваться в расширяющейся системе квазигосударственных финансов, которые находятся в распоряжении разрастающегося госсектора. Наряду с общим объемом бюджетных расходов для экономического роста также важна их структура. Планируемое изменение структуры государственных расходов в рамках выполнения майского Указа Президента РФ, по оценкам, способно оказать небольшой положительный эффект на экономический рост в краткосрочной перспективе, при этом в долгосрочной перспективе влияние может добавить рост ВВП в среднем до 0,4 п.п. ежегодно. Действующее с 2017 г. правило накладывает чрезмерно жесткие ограничения на объем расходов федерального бюджета, а также по-прежнему отличается недостаточной гибкостью своей конструкции и отсутствием контрциклического характера действия. Следовательно, поиск альтернативных версий правила не завершен. Также для успешности реализации приоритетов социально-экономического развития страны должно быть продолжено повышение эффективности управления имеющимися бюджетными ресурсами на программно-целевых и проектных принципах.

English Abstract: In the last decade, Russia has seen a reduction in total budget expenditures - from 41% of GDP in 2009 to 34.5% in 2018. However, this decrease in expenses may be masked in the expanding system of quasi-public finances that are in the control of the growing public sector. Along with the total budget expenditures, their structure is also important for economic growth. The planned change in the structure of public expenditures within the framework of implementation of the May Presidential Decree is estimated to have a slight positive effect on economic growth in the short term, while in the long run, GDP growth may add up to 0.4 pp on average annually. The rule that has been in effect since 2017 imposes excessively rigid restrictions on the amount of federal budget expenditures, and also still differs in the lack of flexibility of its design and the lack of a countercyclical nature of the action. Therefore, the search for alternative versions of the rule is not completed. Also for the success of the implementation of the priority of the socio-economic development of the country should be continued to increase the efficiency of management of available budgetary resources on the program and project principles.

Note: Downloadable document is in Russian.

Suggested Citation

Belev, Sergei and Vekerle, Konstantin and Gurvich, E. and Zolotareva, Anna and Moguchev, Nikita and Sokolov, Ilya and Tischenko, Tatiana and Filippova, Irina, Бюджет как инструмент экономического развития (Budget As a Tool for Economic Development) (February 11, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3339327 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3339327

Sergei Belev (Contact Author)

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Russia

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

3-5 Gazetny Lane
Moscow, 125009
Russia

Konstantin Vekerle

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Moscow Campus ( email )

Moscow
Russia

E. Gurvich

Economic Expert Group (EEG) ( email )

Vetoshny per., 5/4, office 206
Moscow, 109012
Russia

Anna Zolotareva

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Moscow Campus ( email )

Moscow
Russia

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Gazetny per. 3-5
Moscow, 125993
Russia

Nikita Moguchev

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

3-5 Gazetny Lane
Moscow, 125009
Russia

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Russia

Ilya Sokolov

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

Gazetny pereulok, 3-5
Moscow, 125993
Russia

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Moscow Campus ( email )

Moscow
Russia

Tatiana Tischenko

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

3-5 Gazetny Lane
Moscow, 125009
Russia

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Russia

Irina Filippova

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

3-5 Gazetny Lane
Moscow, 125009
Russia

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