All that I Have to Say Has Already Crossed Your Mind

22 Pages Posted: 23 Feb 2003

See all articles by Roger Koppl

Roger Koppl

Whitman School of Management

J. Barkley Rosser, Jr.

James Madison University - Economics Program

Abstract

We present three arguments regarding the limits to rationality, prediction and control in economics, based on Morgenstern's analysis of the Holmes-Moriarty problem. The first uses a standard metamathematical theorem on computability to indicate logical limits to forecasting the future. The second provides possible nonconvergence for Bayesian forecasting in infinite-dimensional space. The third shows the impossibility of a computer perfectly forecasting an economy with agents knowing its forecasting program. Thus, economic order is partly the product of something other than calculative rationality. The joint presentation of these existing results should introduce the reader to implications of these concepts for certain shared concerns of Keynes and Hayek.

Suggested Citation

Koppl, Roger and Rosser, Jr., J. Barkley, All that I Have to Say Has Already Crossed Your Mind. Metroeconomica, Vol. 53, pp. 339-360, 2002. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=333935

Roger Koppl (Contact Author)

Whitman School of Management ( email )

United States
(315) 443-4543 (Phone)
(315) 442-1449 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://whitman.syr.edu/faculty-and-research/faculty/showInfo.aspx?id=468

J. Barkley Rosser, Jr.

James Madison University - Economics Program ( email )

United States
540-568-3212 (Phone)
540-568-3010 (Fax)

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
28
Abstract Views
1,356
PlumX Metrics