The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations

34 Pages Posted: 16 Jul 2004 Last revised: 4 Jul 2010

See all articles by James M. Poterba

James M. Poterba

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics

Lawrence H. Summers

Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS)

Date Written: September 1984

Abstract

This paper examines the potential influence of changing volatility in stock market prices on the level of stock market prices. It demonstrates that volatility is only weakly serially correlated, implying that shocks to volatility do not persist. These shocks can therefore have only a small impact on stockmarket prices, since changes in volatility affect expected required rates of return for relatively short intervals. These findings lead us to be skeptical of recent claims that the stock market's poor performance during the 1970's can be explained by volatility-induced increases in risk premia.

Suggested Citation

Poterba, James M. and Summers, Lawrence H., The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations (September 1984). NBER Working Paper No. w1462. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=334288

James M. Poterba (Contact Author)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics ( email )

50 Memorial Drive
E52-350
Cambridge, MA 02142
United States
617-253-6673 (Phone)
617-253-1330 (Fax)

Lawrence H. Summers

Harvard University ( email )

1875 Cambridge Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
617-495-1502 (Phone)
617-495-8550 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) ( email )

79 John F. Kennedy Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
115
rank
235,231
Abstract Views
1,719
PlumX Metrics