New Evidence on the Portfolio Balance Approach to Currency Returns

Abstract

This paper re-examines the empirical performance of the portfolio balance approach to currency returns. It considers the implications of two alternative specifications of preferences: one based on expected utility theory and the other on prospect theory. It also uses survey data to estimate models of ex-ante rather than ex-post returns. The empirical analysis relies on the co-integrated VAR framework, which is well suited for testing competing models and dealing with unit roots. Like earlier studies, we find little support for the expected utility theory model. By contrast, the prospect theory model’s predictions are largely borne out in the data, including those about sign reversals. We find the strongest support for a hybrid model that incorporates the risk factors of both portfolio balance specifications.

Keywords: International CAPM, Prospect Theory, Risk Premium, Co-integrated VAR, Survey Expectations

JEL Classification: F31, D81, D84, G10