Will Indonesia Be the Next Victim of the Malthusian Population Prophecy? Empirical Evidence from 'Box–Jenkins' ARIMA Approach

DRJ - Journal of Economics & Finance, 4 (2), pp. 11 - 20.

10 Pages Posted: 28 Mar 2019

See all articles by Thabani Nyoni

Thabani Nyoni

University of Zimbabwe

Wellington Garikai Bonga

Great Zimbabwe University

Date Written: March 5, 2019

Abstract

Employing annual time series data on total population in Indonesia from 1960 to 2017, we model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box–Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Indonesia annual total population is neither I (0) nor I (1) but rather I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (3, 2, 0) model. The diagnostic tests also indicate that the presented model is very stable and quite reasonable. The results of the study reveal that total population in Indonesia will continue to sharply rise within the next three decades, for up to approximately 341 million people by 2050. In order to address the threats posed by a spiraling population, policy recommendations have been put forward by the study.

Keywords: ARIMA, Box-Jenkins, Forecasting, Indonesia, Malthusian Theory, Population Growth

JEL Classification: C53, Q56, R23

Suggested Citation

Nyoni, Thabani and Bonga, Wellington Garikai, Will Indonesia Be the Next Victim of the Malthusian Population Prophecy? Empirical Evidence from 'Box–Jenkins' ARIMA Approach (March 5, 2019). DRJ - Journal of Economics & Finance, 4 (2), pp. 11 - 20.. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3346969

Thabani Nyoni (Contact Author)

University of Zimbabwe ( email )

Mashonaland
Zimbabwe

HOME PAGE: http://www.uz.ac.zw

Wellington Garikai Bonga

Great Zimbabwe University ( email )

P. O. Box 1235
Masvingo
Masvingo, Masvingo 00263
Zimbabwe

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