Will Indonesia Be the Next Victim of the Malthusian Population Prophecy? Empirical Evidence from 'Box–Jenkins' ARIMA Approach
DRJ - Journal of Economics & Finance, 4 (2), pp. 11 - 20.
10 Pages Posted: 28 Mar 2019
Date Written: March 5, 2019
Employing annual time series data on total population in Indonesia from 1960 to 2017, we model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box–Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Indonesia annual total population is neither I (0) nor I (1) but rather I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (3, 2, 0) model. The diagnostic tests also indicate that the presented model is very stable and quite reasonable. The results of the study reveal that total population in Indonesia will continue to sharply rise within the next three decades, for up to approximately 341 million people by 2050. In order to address the threats posed by a spiraling population, policy recommendations have been put forward by the study.
Keywords: ARIMA, Box-Jenkins, Forecasting, Indonesia, Malthusian Theory, Population Growth
JEL Classification: C53, Q56, R23
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation