Tracking Uncertainty Through the Relative Sentiment Shift Series
64 Pages Posted: 6 Mar 2019
Date Written: March 6, 2019
We examine the causal dynamic relationship between economic policy uncertainty and economic activities, using a Local Projection model with external instruments. Based on the psychological theory of conviction narratives, we construct a Relative Sentiment Shift (RSS) index and use it as an instrumental variable that captures exogenous variations in economic policy uncertainty. Our empirical results suggest that an increase in economic policy uncertainty induces recessionary pressures in the economy: reductions in production and employment, a sharp stock market downturn, and a constrained financial market.
Keywords: Economic narratives, Algorithmic text analysis, Uncertainty, Dynamic causal effect, Local projection, IV Regression
JEL Classification: E2, D81, C1
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