The Lost Ones: The Opportunities and Outcomes of Non-College Educated Americans Born in the 1960s

71 Pages Posted: 19 Mar 2019

See all articles by Margherita Borella

Margherita Borella

University of Torino - Dipartimento di scienze economico-sociali e matematico-statistiche; CeRP - Collegio Carlo Alberto

Mariacristina De Nardi

University College London, Economics Dpt.; Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - Public Economics

Fang Yang

Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: March 2019

Abstract

White, non-college-educated Americans born in the 1960s face shorter life expectancies, higher medical expenses, and lower wages per unit of human capital compared with those born in the 1940s, and men's wages declined more than women's. After documenting these changes, we use a life-cycle model of couples and singles to evaluate their effects. The drop in wages depressed the labor supply of men and increased that of women, especially in married couples. Their shorter life expectancy reduced their retirement savings but the increase in out-of-pocket medical expenses increased them by more. Welfare losses, measured a one-time asset compensation are 12.5%, 8%, and 7.2% of the present discounted value of earnings for single men, couples, and single women, respectively. Lower wages explain 47-58% of these losses, shorter life expectancies 25-34%, and higher medical expenses account for the rest.

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Suggested Citation

Borella, Margherita and De Nardi, Mariacristina and Yang, Fang, The Lost Ones: The Opportunities and Outcomes of Non-College Educated Americans Born in the 1960s (March 2019). NBER Working Paper No. w25661. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3354315

Margherita Borella (Contact Author)

University of Torino - Dipartimento di scienze economico-sociali e matematico-statistiche ( email )

C. so Unione Sovietica, 218 Bis
Torino, 13820-4020
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/margheritaborella/

CeRP - Collegio Carlo Alberto

Via Real Collegio, 30
Moncalieri, Turin
Italy
+39 011 647 6525 (Phone)
+39 011 640 3680 (Fax)

Mariacristina De Nardi

University College London, Economics Dpt. ( email )

Gower Street
London WC1E 6BT, WC1E 6BT
United Kingdom

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago ( email )

Research Department
230 South LaSalle Street
Chicago, IL 60604
United States
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312 322 2357 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.nber.org/~denardim

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - Public Economics ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.nber.org/~denardim

Fang Yang

Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge ( email )

Baton Rouge, LA 70803
United States

HOME PAGE: http://faculty.bus.lsu.edu/fyang/

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