Are Global Value Chains Receding? The Jury Is Still Out. Key Findings from the Analysis of Deflated World Trade in Parts and Components

41 Pages Posted: 25 Mar 2019

See all articles by Guillaume Gaulier

Guillaume Gaulier

Banque de France

Aude Sztulman

Université Paris-Dauphine, PSL Research University

Deniz Ünal-Kesenci

Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Info. Internationales (CEPII)

Date Written: March 2019

Abstract

In this article, we examine the dynamics of Global Value Chains (GVCs) since the 2000s. Did it show a marked expansion up to the Great Recession and did GVCs begin a downturn in the 2010s? To better understand the evolution of GVCs at the world level, we use very detailed trade data for 2000 to 2016, which distinguishes different production stages along the GVC. In particular, among intermediate goods, we focus on Parts and Components (P&C) rather than semi-finished products since the manufacture of P&C corresponds to activities more embedded in GVCs. We control, also, for the global business cycle and price effects using an original production stages deflator based on detailed bilateral trade unit-values. This new GVC indicator shows moderate growth over the study period with no trend reversal.

Keywords: global value chains, parts and components – P&C, trade in volume, electronics

JEL Classification: F14, F15, L60

Suggested Citation

Gaulier, Guillaume and Sztulman, Aude and Ünal-Kesenci, Deniz, Are Global Value Chains Receding? The Jury Is Still Out. Key Findings from the Analysis of Deflated World Trade in Parts and Components (March 2019). Banque de France Working Paper March 2019, WP #715 ; Université Paris-Dauphine Research Paper No. 3359558. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3359558 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3359558

Guillaume Gaulier (Contact Author)

Banque de France ( email )

Paris
France

Aude Sztulman

Université Paris-Dauphine, PSL Research University

Place du Maréchal de Lattre de Tassigny
Paris, 75016
France

Deniz Ünal-Kesenci

Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Info. Internationales (CEPII)

9 rue Georges Pitard
Paris Cedex 15, F-75015
France

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