Determinants of Juvenile Crime – Evidence from India

Abstract

Using data from 2009 - 2016 across 31 states and union territories, this paper investigates determinants of juvenile delinquency in India as well as explores the nature of the complex relationship between economic variables and crime rate. The paper employs a panel corrected standard error model due to the presence of heteroskedasticity and contemporaneous correlation. Additionally, due to possible feedback effect from independent variables resulting in endogeneity, a two-step Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is utilized to estimate a system of equations. Estimation results indicate that macroeconomic factors - GSDP per capita and adult unemployment rate - are significant in explaining the juvenile crime rate in India. Higher poverty rate and percentage of slums were found to increase juvenile crime. This paper also demonstrates the harmful effects that domestic violence has on juvenile delinquency. Finally, education has a deterring impact on crimes relating to juveniles but deterrence factors do not. While some implications are consistent with those found in previous studies of crime in developed and developing countries, the analysis in this paper also reveals unique results. For example, the adult unemployment rate was negatively correlated with juvenile crime, and an increase in police density exhibits a positive association with the juvenile crime rate. Further analysis of crimes by type (property and violent), reveals additional insights. In addition to that, contrary to hypothesis, by employing GMM estimation the paper finds no evidence of a negative impact of juvenile delinquency on economic growth.

Keywords: juvenile crime; socioeconomic factors; deterrence; macroeconomic factors; demographic factors; India

JEL Classification: D63, K42, J11, O53