Force Majeure Events and Stock Market Reactions In Ukraine

Brunel University London, Economics and Finance Working Paper Series, No. 19-05

24 Pages Posted: 30 Apr 2019

See all articles by Guglielmo Maria Caporale

Guglielmo Maria Caporale

Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance; London South Bank University; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute); German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)

Oleksiy Plastun

Sumy State University

Inna Makarenko

National Bank of Ukraine - Ukrainian Academy of Banking of the National Bank of Ukraine

Date Written: February 6, 2019

Abstract

This paper examines reactions in the Ukrainian stock market to force majeure events, which are divided into four groups: economic force majeure, social force majeure and terrorist acts, natural and technological disasters. More specifically, using daily data for the main Ukrainian stock market index (namely PFTS) over the period 01.01.1997-31.12.2018 this study investigates whether or not force majeure events create (temporary) inefficiencies and there exist profitable trading strategies based on exploiting them. For this purpose cumulative abnormal returns and trading simulation approaches are used in addition to Student’s t-tests. The results suggest that the Ukrainian stock market absorbs new information rather fast. Negative returns in most cases are observed only on the day of the event. The only exception is technological disasters, the market needing up to ten days to react fully in this case. Despite the presence of a detectable pattern in price behaviour after force majeure events (namely, a price decrease on the day of the event) no profitable trading strategies based on it are found as their outcomes do not differ from those generated by random trading.

Keywords: Ukrainian Stock Market, Force-Majeure Event, Event Study

JEL Classification: C22, G12

Suggested Citation

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria and Plastun, Oleksiy and Makarenko, Inna, Force Majeure Events and Stock Market Reactions In Ukraine (February 6, 2019). Brunel University London, Economics and Finance Working Paper Series, No. 19-05, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3362155 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3362155

Guglielmo Maria Caporale

Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance ( email )

Kingston Lane
Marie Jahoda Building
Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH
United Kingdom
+44 1895 266713 (Phone)
+44 1895 269770 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.brunel.ac.uk/about/acad/bbs/bbsstaff/ef_staff/guglielmocaporale/

London South Bank University ( email )

Centre for Monetary and Financial Economics
London
United Kingdom

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) ( email )

Mohrenstraße 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

Oleksiy Plastun (Contact Author)

Sumy State University ( email )

Rymskyi-Korsakov str., 2
Sumy, 40000
Ukraine

Inna Makarenko

National Bank of Ukraine - Ukrainian Academy of Banking of the National Bank of Ukraine

57, Petropavlivska str.
Sumy, 40030
Ukraine

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
23
Abstract Views
304
PlumX Metrics