Random Manual Risk-Limiting Post-Election Audits

28 Pages Posted: 19 Apr 2019 Last revised: 10 Jun 2019

Date Written: March 30, 2019

Abstract

This article presents post-election audits designed to limit the risk of certifying an incorrect election outcome to any desired low probability, say α = 0.05. Its contributions are to: provide accurate upper margin error bounds for single or multiple winner election audit sampling; describe Stenger’s numerical method for precisely calculating uniform probability sample sizes and revise Aslam et al.’s weighted by error bound sampling method; provide a threshold for net margin error to trigger an expanded audit; explain why the maximum level of undetectability by observation assumption of less than one (1) for multi-ballot audit units requires that the runner-up or losing candidate(s) be allowed to select one or more additional precincts to be audited; and provide a sample R program for 3 sampling methods for risk-limiting post-election audits.

Keywords: vote miscount, post election audit sampling, risk limiting election audits, expanding election audits, election margin error bounds

JEL Classification: C60

Suggested Citation

Dopp, Kathy Anne, Random Manual Risk-Limiting Post-Election Audits (March 30, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3362885 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3362885

Kathy Anne Dopp (Contact Author)

Independent ( email )

United States

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