Intuition Speed as a Predictor of Choice and Confidence in Point Spread Predictions

Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 14, No. 2, March 2019, pp. 148–155

8 Pages Posted: 19 Apr 2019

See all articles by Alexander Walker

Alexander Walker

University of Waterloo

Martin Harry Turpin

University of Waterloo - Department of Psychology

Jonathan Fugelsang

University of Waterloo - Department of Psychology

Derek Koehler

University of Waterloo

Date Written: March 31, 2019

Abstract

Previous research has revealed that intuitive confidence is an important predictor of how people choose between an intuitive and non-intuitive alternative when faced with information that opposes the intuitive response. In the current study, we investigated the speed of intuition generation as a predictor of intuitive confidence and participant choice in choice conflict situations. Participants predicted the outcomes of several National Basketball Association games, both with and without reference to a point spread. As hypothesized, the faster participants were to predict the outright winner of a game (i.e., generate an intuition) the more likely they were to predict the favourite against the point spread for that game (i.e., endorse the intuitive response). Overall, our findings are consistent with the notion that the speed of intuition generation acts as a determinant of intuitive confidence and a predictor of choice in situations featuring equally valid intuitive and non-intuitive alternatives.

Keywords: dual-process, intuition confidence, intuition speed, sports gambling

Suggested Citation

Walker, Alexander and Turpin, Martin Harry and Fugelsang, Jonathan and Koehler, Derek, Intuition Speed as a Predictor of Choice and Confidence in Point Spread Predictions (March 31, 2019). Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 14, No. 2, March 2019, pp. 148–155, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3363989

Alexander Walker (Contact Author)

University of Waterloo ( email )

200 University Avenue West
Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1
Canada

Martin Harry Turpin

University of Waterloo - Department of Psychology ( email )

200 University Avenue West
Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1
Canada

Jonathan Fugelsang

University of Waterloo - Department of Psychology

200 University Avenue West
Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1
Canada

Derek Koehler

University of Waterloo ( email )

Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1
Canada

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